Is The Chaos Politics Of Net-Zero Progressing To Not-Zero

Rinnai Director Chris Goggin looks at some of the unreported details of the politics of net-zero, more specifically the ideological challenges to carbon neutrality and climate change policies coming from all areas of the global political spectrum. Mr Goggin reports on how China, Europe, UK and the US are fielding their climate change policies. Additionally, there are further observations on what pledges and agreements could be sacrificed for an approach that relies on the continuing use of fossil fuels​.​

The evidence behind a global march towards clean and carbon-minimised energies is not doubted by the scientific community. There is a global consensus from the overwhelming majority of scientists who work in this arena  that carbon emissions are a huge factor contributing towards global warming.

It is unilaterally agreed that the “Greenhouse effect” has increased surface temperatures. The data of fast-rising temperatures is open to all interested parties to see without any restrictions. Trapped heat has been the cornerstone of biological life on this planet in the past but now threatens the well-being of all plant and animal life.

The greenhouse effect is a natural process where Earth's atmosphere traps heat, warming the planet to a habitable temperature. Solar radiation heats the Earth's surface, which then emits infrared radiation (heat) back out.

Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and water vapor absorb some of this outgoing heat and re-radiate it back towards Earth, warming the lower atmosphere. This effect can be intensified by human activities, leading to global warming and climate change. 

Sunlight is the primary source of energy that allows the existence of human life. As sunlight reaches our planet it travels through the atmosphere and is then reflected by water, clouds and ice upwards towards space.

Some light travels back into outer space whilst other parts are captured by the atmosphere and redistributed across all directions maintaining warmer, more human friendly temperatures. Any disturbance to this cycle will alter the temperature on Planet Earth.

Adding any more greenhouse gasses to this process like carbon dioxide and Methane lessens our planet's ability to release energy which is converted to heat. Further greenhouse gasses that fossil fuels perpetuate also spread captured heat and therefore creates rising sea levels, increased natural disaster probability and drought.

This is the supporting science behind global warming. However, there are vocal elements within the range of political parties that are either denying these recorded and calculated observations or ignoring them all together.

For example, China, although an acknowledged culprit in utilising fossil fuels, is working towards widespread renewable energy introduction. Although China’s political system cannot be considered by western values as a democratic state, China is not diminishing the science behind NetZero. According to figures released by the International Energy Association (IEA), as of 2023 China’s domestic energy mix included a 60.9% share of fossil fuels - but is working diligently towards transitioning to clean energy.  

UK mainstream media has reported that China had installed 93GW of solar capacity in May 2025, enough to power 70 million homes for an entire year. This equivalates to 100 solar panels every second. Between January and May 2025 China had included 198GW of solar and 46GW of wind capacity into domestic operations, producing as much electricity as Turkey or Indonesia, which are countries with populations of 100million plus.

One recent BBC article stated that China is: “way ahead in clean energy growth, adding more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined.” The same article says that China has outpaced rising domestic electricity demand through renewable production and reduced its fossil fuel generation by 2%. And it is considering this as a commodity export.

European politics, in comparison, is fractured, with every major economy inside the EU and the UK containing virulent and vocal opposition towards NetZero and clean energy introduction. The main reason behind these objections appears financially based and not science led.   

There are strong calls inside of UK politics to abolish NetZero ambitions in favour of North Sea fossil fuel extraction. A government opposition think tank report released last year prefers a less time stringent approach to a domestic cleaning of the national grid. 

There is a populist belief that the UK outright owns all the gas and oil remaining in the North Sea and therefore should have cheap fuel prices. But we live in a global market economy where producers want the best price for their product and hence the price of fuel is global and not local.

Companies from many different nationalities own North Sea oil, with the UK holding the largest combined equity stake at 46.5%. However, significant stakes are also held by companies from the US, France, Spain, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, China, Russia and Norway, among others.

The recently released report “Decarbonising the Grid Three Scenarios for Achieving Net Zero Power” presents three pathways that explore different routes towards providing clean and cheap energy for UK customers. An independent energy market analytics company - Aurora Energy Research, has reviewed each pathway and has provided their interpretation of feasibility for Policy Exchange, a current government think tank.

Current plans to decarbonise the UK’s power grid by 2035 will require £8.2 billion a year of additional investment until 2030 - a total of £49.3 billon. A further £11.1 billion a year of additional investment from 2031 – 2035 a total of £55.3 billion. The total accumulative investment over 11 years will amount to £104.6 billion over next 11 years.

The current government aims to acquire huge amounts of capital investment to achieve their aim of decarbonising. Aurora has calculated that £15.6 billion a year until 2030 is required (total £93.5 billion) and a further £4.4. billion a year from 2031 - 2035 (£22.5 billion) equating to a total of £116 billion over the next 11 years.

The opposition to government is arguing that a more pragmatic approach should be adopted to ensure a process that creates less financial turbulence to customers and investors. However, some types of pragmatism are now evident in the politics of other large economies inside of the European block. France has banned low emission zones in towns and cities as of May 2025.

These low emission zones are designed to reduce traffic congestion and pollution levels in well populated urban areas of 150,000 inhabitants. Although low emission zones are still in effect, a ban has been imposed for pragmatic reasons of regional financial growth.  

Although banned - a total abolishment of low emission zones is still not guaranteed as a series of legislative measures must be drafted and approved by various political entities before being approved. However, a ban on low emission zones has been passed in French parliament.

Germany is also attempting to revise climate objectives through a newly acquired coalition government between the Conservative Christian Democratic Union and the centre-left Social Democratic Party. New coalition policy adaptations could impact climate ambitions, these include reviewing and possibly reducing land area reserved for wind energy, a rollback on electric vehicle sales targets and a possible repeal of the Building Energy Act – which replaces oil and gas heating with renewable technologies.

The United States of America has rapidly retracted policies that the previous administration had put in place. For example, the Trump administration has publicly voiced its intention to withdraw $13 billion of funds made available by former President Biden’s green investment strategy.

Additional climate friendly policy reversals include subsidies for offshore wind projects being stopped by the current American administration. Construction on Equinor’s 810MW Empire Wind project was halted last month due to a change in policy.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will no longer fund solar panels or allow equipment produced by foreign companies on USDA approved projects. Economic future relating to agricultural land and domestic energy independence are cited factors in this decision. 

Direct interference of clean energy initiatives appears to be motivated by an ideological position whilst European states have begun withdrawing from ecological pledges for reasons of financial pragmatism. The UK push towards a less intense energy transition contains elements of both ideology and monetary concerns. It could be argued that American influence can be denoted inside of UK populist political opinion.

Rinnai is continuously monitoring all news relating to energy finances, policy, construction and direction. Any information that could affect appliance or energy options will be shared so that the consultant, specifier, installer and UK customer can adjust any potential purchase accordingly.

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