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Monday, 21 October

Climate Change - Met Office Responds To IPCC

Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

The UK's Met Office has responded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special 1.5°C report. We also summarise the IPCC report.

The long-awaited IPCC report on what the effects of a 1.5°C increase in global warming was issued on October 8 at a meeting in South Korea.

The UK's own Met Office has now commented on what staying under 1.5°C would achieve - primarily holding back many of the risks associated with a 2°C rise says.

The Met Office’s Professor Richard Betts said: “Limiting the rise in warming to 1.5°C avoids many but not all of the worst climate impacts seen at 2°C or above. For example, vulnerability to food insecurity increases in many countries as our world warms. An increase in global temperature is projected to cause more flooding in some areas and more drought in others. Both increases and decreases in rainfall are generally larger at 2°C global warming than at 1.5°C.”

An analysis produced by the Met Office, working with the University of Exeter, shows that the earth in 2018 has already warmed by 1°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. The analysis also shows that the vast majority of 1°C of warming reached so far can be attributed to human activity.

The Met Office analysis looks at a 30-year average of observations and estimates centred on 2018. Combining observation since 2003 and projections up to 2032, the Met Office has been able to construct a basic estimate of a 30-year climate average centred around 2018 to give an indication of where we are now. This method suggests a current global average of about 1°C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Professor Jason Lowe, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “We’ve already experienced around 1°C of warming above the temperature levels seen before the industrial revolution. A considerable body of evidence attributes a large fraction of this to human activity. This new report will help us better understand how quickly the world must now respond to have the greatest chance of limiting warming and climate impacts to lower levels.”

 

To complement the publication of the IPCC 1.5°C special report, the Met Office Hadley Centre has produced three briefing notes which explore the following related topics:

Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, the IPCC said. With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society. 

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C will be a key scientific input into the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland in December, when governments review the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change. 

"With more than 6,000 scientific references cited and the dedicated contribution of thousands of expert and government reviewers worldwide, this important report testifies to the breadth and policy relevance of the IPCC," said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. 

Ninety-one authors and review editors from 40 countries prepared the IPCC report in response to an invitation from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) when it adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015. 

"One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes," said Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I. 

 

Key findings

The report highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C or more. For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 per cent) would be lost with 2°C. 

"Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems," said Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II. 

Limiting global warming would also give people and ecosystems more room to adapt and remain below relevant risk thresholds, added Pörtner. The report also examines pathways available to limit warming to 1.5°C, what it would take to achieve them and what the consequences could be. "The good news is that some of the kinds of actions that would be needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C are already underway around the world, but they would need to accelerate," said Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of Working Group I. 

 

Rapid and far-reaching transitions

The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching 'net zero' around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air. 

"Limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes," said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III. 

Allowing the global temperature to temporarily exceed or 'overshoot' 1.5°C would mean a greater reliance on techniques that remove CO2 from the air to return global temperature to below 1.5°C by 2100. The effectiveness of such techniques are unproven at large scale and some may carry significant risks for sustainable development, the report notes. 

"Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being, making it easier to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals," said Priyardarshi Shukla, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III. 

"The decisions we make today are critical in ensuring a safe and sustainable world for everyone, both now and in the future, said Debra Roberts, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.  "This report gives policymakers and practitioners the information they need to make decisions that tackle climate change while considering local context and people's needs. The next few years are probably the most important in our history."

 

The IPCC is the leading world body for assessing the science related to climate change, its impacts and potential future risks and possible response options. 

The report was prepared under the scientific leadership of all three IPCC working groups. Working Group I assesses the physical science basis of climate change; Working Group II addresses impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and Working Group III deals with the mitigation of climate change. 

 

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement adopted by 195 nations at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in December 2015 included the aim of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 

Global Warming of 1.5°C is the first in a series of Special Reports to be produced in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Cycle. Next year the IPCC will release the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and Climate Change and Land, which looks at how climate change affects land use. 

Picture: Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C.

Article written by Brian Shillibeer

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