A Bridge Too Far for Gas

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25 February 2016 | Updated 01 January 1970

Research by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has highlighted ‘lack of a clear vision of the future role for gas’ in the UK’s energy system. 

The research concluded that gas has only a limited role as a ‘bridging fuel’ to a low carbon future. 

It also found that without carbon capture and storage (CCS), the scope for gas use in 2050 is little more than 10% of the 2010 level. 

Previous research by UKERC published in 2014 found that gas did have a role as a bridge but only in some countries (mostly those that use a lot of coal). 

The authors caution that any new CCGT gas-fired power stations built to replace coal plants will have to operate at very low load factors in the 2030s and beyond unless they are retrofitted with CCS and that it is unlikely investors will be willing to build this capacity without strong policy incentives in place. 

Meeting targets

The UK has legally binding greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets in place, requiring an 80% reduction by 2050 from the level in 1990.

However, until more low and zero carbon energy sources come on stream, there needed to be a consideration of options for keeping emissions at a ‘manageable level’.  

The report asks how much gas use is compatible with meeting emissions reduction targets, how this will be affected by the availability (or lack) of carbon capture and storage technologies and how long the timeframe for the use of gas might be.

It also explores the potential role of natural gas in the UK through to 2050, looking at the historical role of coal-to-gas substitution in decarbonising the UK energy system, asking what potential remains and considering how the role of gas in the energy system might change in future.  

Compromising decarbonisation ambitions

“A ‘second dash for gas’ may provide some short term gains in reducing emissions but may not be the most cost effective way forward and may even compromise the UK’s decarbonisation ambitions,” stated Mike Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy at Warwick Business School and one of the report’s authors. “If all coal-fired power generation is to be removed by 2025 and we are no longer supporting the development of CCS, policy makers must think carefully about how best to replace that capacity as it can play only a modest role between now and 2020 and in the medium to long term has no role as a bridging fuel because the UK has already exploited a large amount of the decarbonisation potential in the power sector.”   

Professor Jim Watson, Director of the UK Energy Research Centre, added that without CCS, there was little scope for gas use in power generation beyond 2030 and it would need to be steadily phased out over the next 35 years and almost entirely removed by 2050. He believed this represented a major challenge in relation to the decarbonisation of domestic heat and undermined the economic logic of investing in new CCGT gas plants rather than low or zero carbon generation in the first place.  

“A key challenge will be managing a ‘soft landing’ for the gas industry that keeps sufficient capacity on the mix as its role changes,” said Paul Ekins, Professor of Energy and Environment Policy, UCL Energy Institute. “Alternatives to the use of gas outside the power sector, particularly in heating homes, need to be explored urgently. It’s not clear that current policies will achieve this and we need a much clearer vision of the future role for gas in the UK’s low carbon energy system.”  

Picture: A report by UKERC shows that there needs to be a clearer role that gas fired stations will play in future UK energy strategy

Article written by Mike Gannon | Published 25 February 2016

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