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How a Russian Invasion of Ukraine Could Affect Global Markets

How a Russian Invasion of Ukraine Could Affect Global Markets
22 February 2022 | Updated 24 February 2022
 

In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, several markets could feel the effect, including energy, grain and fuel.

The USA, UK and the EU have already begun sanctions against Russia, after President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to be sent to breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk). It is not yet clear if any troops have been deployed so far.

What might the effect of a full-scale invasion be on global markets?

Editor's note: Since initial publication, Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and the global market effects are yet to be seen

 

Reliance on Russia for Natural Gas – Nord Stream 2 Halted

 

According to a report by Reuters, sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could be deepened in light of the invasion.

Around 35 per cent of Europe’s natural gas supplies come from Russia, and countries such as North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova rely exclusively on Russian gas.

Germany has already put Nord Stream 2 on hold, a new 1,200km gas pipeline from Russia that was intended to establish a direct link between Russian-state owned Gazprom and Europe.

 

Food Prices

 

Grain exports from both countries cooky be affected in the event of military disruption in the Black Sea region, as major exporters of grain (including Ukraine and Russia) all ship from Black Sea ports.

Russia, USA and Canada provide 45.8 per cent of the overall value of grain exports.

 

Price of Fuel

 

Average petrol and diesel prices have hit record highs, as the RAC reported that petrol hit 149.12p a litre on Sunday 20 February. According to RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams, the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the global pandemic are to blame:

“Petrol has unfortunately hit a frightening new high of 148.02p which takes filling a 55-litre family car to an eye-watering £81.41. With the oil price teetering on the brink of $100 a barrel and retailers keen to pass on the increase in wholesale fuel quickly, new records could now be set on a daily basis in the coming weeks.

“The oil price is rising due to tensions between Russia – the world’s third biggest oil producer – and Ukraine, along with oil production remaining out of kilter with demand as the world emerges from the pandemic. As a result drivers in the UK could be in for an even worse ride as pump prices look certain to go up even more.”

Picture: a photograph of several coins. Image Credit: Pixabay

Article written by Ella Tansley | Published 22 February 2022

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