Is Retail Property Heading Down The Rabbit Hole?

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20 June 2018 | Updated 22 June 2018

How the disappearance of well-known retailers from the UK’s high streets is affecting the commercial real estate market - author of the Cass Commercial Real Estate Lending Report, Dr Nicole Lux comments.

Dr Nicole Lux said: “The fundamental changes in the retail sector are affecting real estate investment funds as well as lenders. House of Fraser is a huge retailer who has announced its cutting its existing leases by 25%. Retail rents are falling and landlords have to increase tenant incentives, making it more difficult for fund managers to deliver investment returns for retail portfolios.

“Some investors still believe in short-term headwinds but the sector is shifting fundamentally. Lenders already commented in the last Cass Lending survey that they are not willing to lend to regional or secondary shopping centres or high street retail property in a regional city. Especially, a shopping centre where there is already more than 15% vacant retail spaces is quickly going to deteriorate further in value.

“Of course for some investors, these will be investment opportunities, but turnaround strategies are highly risky and investors should question their fund managers’ capabilities before investing.

Lenders still have £25bn of debt outstanding to the retail property sector, representing approximately 20% of the secured real estate debt market in 2018. About one third is held by UK Clearing Banks and maturing within the next 4-5 years. Banks have already been reducing the amount they have been lending to the retail property sector since 2007 when the total outstanding debt to retail property was £55bn.

“Aside from dealing with insolvency and potential loan payment issues, the biggest impact will come from the deterioration of credit of these big retail names and reductions on leases, which will lead to a ratings decline under weaker slotting of these loans which means an increase in risk capital from 70% to 250%. This will make the loan more costly for the bank."

Picture: The High Street is in decline and property in the sector is a risky investment

Article written by Nicole Lux | Published 20 June 2018

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